The first half of the year is about to close. I hope the white cardboard market will peak in the second half of the year.

In the first half of the year, the white cardboard market is coming to an end. Generally speaking, under the influence of unfavorable factors such as increased supply, less than expected demand and upward fluctuation of wood pulp prices, the white cardboard market is a bit unsatisfactory, especially for some enterprises. However, with the rising willingness of downstream customers to stock up, the market has "warmed up" in the short term, and it is hoped that the white cardboard market will turn around in the second half of the year. In the first half of 2024, the white cardboard market was dominated by shocks. From the supply point of view, 2 million tons of white cardboard (social card) will be put into production in 2023, and the output will increase with the resumption of production of paper mills after the year. However, due to the holiday, the demand of downstream customers will rise slowly, so the market competition situation will further intensify. In the first quarter of this year, the cumulative output of domestic ordinary white cardboard was 2,944,200 tons, up 22.83% year-on-year, while the consumption decreased by about 15.95% compared with the fourth quarter of 2023. In terms of cost, so far in 2024, market pulp has experienced a volatile rise. Mainly under the influence of overseas news, the price of the external market has risen, and the price of the domestic spot market has also been continuously raised. However, the domestic white cardboard market is weak, especially the social white cardboard, which is obviously lower than the gross profit of social white cardboard in the second half of last year. According to Longzhong information data, the gross profit of social white cardboard production is expected to be 488 yuan/ton in the first half of 2024, down 5.2% from the previous month. This point was reflected in the 2023 annual report released by Chenming Paper on March 28th. Chen Hongguo, chairman of Chenming Enterprise, one of the domestic white cardboard head enterprises, said at the online performance meeting on April 7 that "in 2023, the industry will increase its production capacity by more than 3 million tons, and the centralized production capacity will lead to an increase in supply, and at the same time, due to the weak downstream demand, the overall gross profit of paper products will decline. In 2023, the prices of raw materials such as wood chips, raw coal and chemicals are also rising, which seriously squeezes the profit margin. " The previous price increase campaign of white cardboard enterprises, which started on April 1st, seems to confirm that "the profit margin is severely squeezed". The above is a review of the white cardboard market from 2023 to now. In the second half of the year, there are 1.7 million tons of white cardboard projects to be built in China, of which the production line of nine dragons paper (Beihai) forestry-pulp-paper integration project with an annual output of 1 million tons is expected to be put into production in the third quarter of this year. With the continuous release of new production capacity, and the downstream demand is affected by macroeconomics and emergencies, the contradiction between supply and demand of white cardboard is difficult to reconcile. On the other hand, under the support of the traditional "Golden September and Silver 10" peak season, the white cardboard market may be another scene.